US indexes green; Dow out front, up ~0.6%
Financials lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Healthcare ~flat
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
Dollar, bitcoin ~flat; crude declines; gold off ~1%
US 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~4.24%
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WITH RISKS STILL SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE, STIFEL PREFERS TO PLAY DEFENSE
Some investors may be anticipating that the deeply cyclical segment of GDP is strengthening, but equity strategists at Stifel would fade that view.
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, believes there are significant obstacles in the way of more than just a fleeting "pop" in the U.S. PMI Manufacturing index, as he sees an abundance of economic headwinds for the S&P 500 as 2025 progresses.
"The expensive S&P 500 appears to us caught in a trading range of 5,850 +/- about 5% (our target is 5,500), bounded by Pavlovian dog 'buy-the-dip' on one side and economic risk (weaker GDP, sticky inflation, i.e., moderate stagflation) on the other side in 2025," writes Bannister in a note out this week.
(His 5,500 target is around 6.5% below the current S&P 500 index .SPX level, and around 10.5% below the February record intraday high).
Bannister continues to recommend an over-weight of defensive value (e.g., staples, healthcare, utilities) and more defensive factor proxies (quality, low volatility, gold) given his view that the S&P 500 "appears to have risks skewed to the downside."
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
A CHINESE SLOWDOWN COULD DISRUPT EUROPEAN EQUITIES' DOMINANCE LATER THIS YEAR, BOFA SAYS - CLICK HERE
FRIDAY DATA BARRAGE: PCE, CHICAGO PMI, TRADE BALANCE, INVENTORIES - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET RISES IN CHOPPY TRADING AFTER IN-LINE INFLATION DATA - CLICK HERE
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BULLS AND BEARS SEE SOME EYE POPPING MOVES - AAII - CLICK HERE
EUROPE'S DEFENCE SECTOR SET FOR BIGGEST WEEKLY JUMP SINCE 2020 - CLICK HERE
EQUITY BUBBLE RISK ALIVE AND JUSTIFIABLE, BUT WE'RE NOT IN ONE - UBS - CLICK HERE
TAIWAN, EUROPE, CANADA MOST EXPOSED STOCK MARKETS TO U.S. TARIFFS - CLICK HERE
TARIFF JITTERS KEEP STOXX SUBDUED DESPITE ROSY EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: TARIFF FEARS BATTER FUTURES - CLICK HERE
NO PLACE TO HIDE FROM TRUMP TARIFF WORRIES - CLICK HERE
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