Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying Woolworths Group's (ASX:WOW) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Simply Wall St.
01 Mar

Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see Woolworths Group Limited (ASX:WOW) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next four days. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be two business days before the record date, which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company's books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. Thus, you can purchase Woolworths Group's shares before the 5th of March in order to receive the dividend, which the company will pay on the 23rd of April.

The company's next dividend payment will be AU$0.39 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of AU$1.04 per share. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, Woolworths Group has a trailing yield of approximately 3.5% on its current stock price of AU$30.01. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.

See our latest analysis for Woolworths Group

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Woolworths Group paid out more than half (72%) of its earnings last year, which is a regular payout ratio for most companies. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Over the past year it paid out 144% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. We're curious about why the company paid out more cash than it generated last year, since this can be one of the early signs that a dividend may be unsustainable.

While Woolworths Group's dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, cash is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Cash is king, as they say, and were Woolworths Group to repeatedly pay dividends that aren't well covered by cashflow, we would consider this a warning sign.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

ASX:WOW Historic Dividend February 28th 2025

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with strong growth prospects usually make the best dividend payers, because it's easier to grow dividends when earnings per share are improving. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. With that in mind, we're encouraged by the steady growth at Woolworths Group, with earnings per share up 3.1% on average over the last five years. Earnings have been growing somewhat, but we're concerned dividend payments consumed most of the company's cash flow over the past year.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Woolworths Group's dividend payments per share have declined at 2.6% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring. Woolworths Group is a rare case where dividends have been decreasing at the same time as earnings per share have been improving. It's unusual to see, and could point to unstable conditions in the core business, or more rarely an intensified focus on reinvesting profits.

The Bottom Line

Has Woolworths Group got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? Woolworths Group is paying out a reasonable percentage of its income and an uncomfortably high 144% of its cash flow as dividends. At least earnings per share have been growing steadily. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

With that being said, if you're still considering Woolworths Group as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Woolworths Group you should be aware of.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10