Market forces rained on the parade of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, the six analysts covering MGP Ingredients provided consensus estimates of US$532m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a sizeable 24% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 57% to US$2.53. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$592m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.10 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about MGP Ingredients' prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for MGP Ingredients

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 27% to US$43.83.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 24% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MGP Ingredients is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that MGP Ingredients' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MGP Ingredients analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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