【国内豆系怎么定价中美经贸博弈？】金十期货3月4日讯，1. 短期逻辑：美国对华加征关税（现实）→ 中国反制且大豆在清单内（现实）→ 美豆出口需求萎缩，巴西出口需求提振（预期）→ 美盘下挫（情绪），巴西CNF上涨 → 豆粕情绪上利多，实质上涨幅度取决于CBOT大豆与巴西CNF报价波动幅度。2024/25年度美豆已基本完成出口计划，对华加征关税与中国反制措施对CBOT大豆实质影响有限，更多是情绪冲击，新的指引等待3月种植意向报告发布。2. 油粕比或承压：关税措施落地叠加3月国内进口大豆到港量偏少，短期油厂挺粕意愿强烈，豆粕期现价格偏强运行；豆油受棕榈油替代效应及库存回升压制，涨幅受限，油粕比面临向下压力。3. 市场对于贸易争端后的成本抬升定价是先缓慢而逐步加速的。前期的定价迟疑源自于对于事件的影响广度和持续时间不确定以及对于事件的成功磋商与否难以达成一致。价格急速拉升通常发生在贸易争端的第一轮磋商不及预期之后。而多头定价的见顶通常发生在实质性缓和之前，存在预期抢跑且在经贸关系缓和后价格加速下跌的特征。
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