Shareholders of Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$169 following its latest yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$5.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.8% to hit US$21.41 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Nexstar Media Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Nexstar Media Group, is for revenues of US$4.98b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 7.9% reduction in Nexstar Media Group's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 36% to US$15.10 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.52 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$199, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Nexstar Media Group analyst has a price target of US$225 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$172. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Nexstar Media Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Nexstar Media Group following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$199, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Nexstar Media Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nexstar Media Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.