Shareholders in Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACHC) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 24% to US$29.98 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$3.2b, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at US$2.78 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Acadia Healthcare Company

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Acadia Healthcare Company are now predicting revenues of US$3.38b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.5% to US$2.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.25 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 8.1% to US$56.38, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Acadia Healthcare Company analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Acadia Healthcare Company's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Acadia Healthcare Company is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Acadia Healthcare Company. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Acadia Healthcare Company's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Acadia Healthcare Company going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Acadia Healthcare Company , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.