【铜：强预期与弱现实碰撞 铜价上行后横盘运行】金十期货3月3日讯，近期铜价偏强上涨后横盘震荡，截至2月28日，卓创资讯1#电解铜现货均价76770元/吨，同比涨幅11.64%，环比涨幅0.03%。近期影响价格的主因：一、年初以来，部分冶炼厂反馈一季度末铜矿粉供应出现缺口，TC加工费跌入负值，个别冶炼厂已开始计划减产，供应紧张预期背景下，年后铜价攀高。二、春节假期冶炼厂大都保持正常生产，但下游加工企业多停工放假，需求停滞，导致社会库存不断上升，且因铜价高位，下游年后开工复苏不及预期，导致市场供大于需局面渐显。强预期与弱现实碰撞下，铜价上涨动力不足，整体进入盘整阶段。后期来看，随着金三银四的到来，终端订单量增加，或一定程度带动加工企业开工复苏，从而拉动对电解铜的需求，铜价有望稳中上涨。
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