金吾财讯 | 中信证券判断国内人均饮酒量不会持续下降，未来有望保持在年人均5-7L的范围内，同时产业结构转型并不会较大程度影响白酒商务消费的长期需求。因此，未来伴随经济逐步复苏、终端需求改善后，该行认为白酒行业势必会迎来新的向上周期，以消费者培育为根基、品牌力持续提升的头部名酒企业会有更好的表现，看好高端酒和头部区域酒表现。当前白酒行业正处于过去三十年以来第三轮大周期的筑底阶段，虽然短期内行业基本面仍需继续承压，走出底部的实质性拐点仍须观察，但投资端伴随政策信号、经济修复预期上升、终端需求企稳等信号推动情绪回暖，该行预计白酒行业资本市场表现将先于产业表现迎来向上周期，而在白酒产业新一轮上升期中该行认为以消费者培育为根基、品牌力持续提升的头部名酒企业会有更好表现。建议在行业底部区间增加优质资产配置。
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