Last week, you might have seen that Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.0% to US$14.37 in the past week. Par Pacific Holdings reported revenues of US$8.0b, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.59 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings

After the latest results, the consensus from Par Pacific Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$6.19b in 2025, which would reflect a painful 22% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with Par Pacific Holdings forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.50 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.82 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$22.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Par Pacific Holdings at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 22% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Par Pacific Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Par Pacific Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Par Pacific Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Par Pacific Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.