It's been a good week for Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (NASDAQ:STRL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 9.4% to US$127. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$2.1b were what the analysts expected, Sterling Infrastructure surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$8.27 per share, an impressive 38% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Sterling Infrastructure after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Sterling Infrastructure

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Sterling Infrastructure is for revenues of US$2.02b in 2025. This implies a discernible 4.6% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 17% to US$6.98 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.46 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$198, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Sterling Infrastructure analyst has a price target of US$210 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$185. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Sterling Infrastructure is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Sterling Infrastructure's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Sterling Infrastructure following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$198, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sterling Infrastructure. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Sterling Infrastructure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Sterling Infrastructure (including 1 which is concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.