The "bro bubble" in speculative assets is bursting, and the cracks are showing. Bitcoin (BTC-USD, Financial) failed to hold its post-election volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $97,600, and now it's paying the price. Down over 25% from its January high and currently trading around $84,545 at 1.47pm today, the cryptocurrency is also the worst-performing asset against the U.S. dollar year-to-date. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warns that if Bitcoin dips below $80,000, nervous “nouveau bulls” could rush for the exits. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) is facing its own struggles, trading well below its post-election VWAP of $371, closing at $287.12 at 1.47pm today.
The broader market is sending mixed signals. Investors are pouring record amounts into gold ($4.7 billion) and equities ($27.2 billion), but cryptocurrency funds are bleeding, with $2.6 billion in outflows. Even with U.S. stocks seeing their biggest weekly inflows of the year at $26.9 billion, Bank of America's private clients aren't buying it—they just recorded their second-largest week of equity selling ever. Hartnett's discussions with investors in Dubai and London reveal a cautious stance: European stocks are a trade, not a long-term bet, while demand for long-term bonds is at a decade-high.
The real test? The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF. Hartnett argues that if it can't break past its 2021 highs despite a backdrop of tariffs, deregulation, and potential Fed rate cuts, it signals that bonds—not stocks—will come out on top. With shifting narratives and volatile positioning, investors are bracing for a market that's becoming increasingly unpredictable.
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