After a 5% price drop on its 2024 results, should I buy shares in this ASX 200 heavyweight?

MotleyFool
04 Mar

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price has been having a rough time in recent weeks.

So much so, the ASX 200 heavyweight has lost 5% of its value since the release of its full year results last month.

Those results were a bit of a mixed bag with positives and negatives. The former includes surging copper earnings, whereas the latter includes falling profits and a sizeable dividend cut.

If you want to delve deeper into what the miner reported, you can read about its results here.

But with the results out of the way and its shares trading lower, is now an opportunity for investors to hit the buy button? Let's see what one leading broker is saying about the country's second largest miner.

Is the Rio Tinto share price in the buy zone?

The team at Goldman Sachs thinks that Rio Tinto's shares would be a top pick for investors today.

In fact, the broker believes that buyers at current levels could generate big returns over the next 12 months.

According to a note from last month, its analysts responded to Rio Tinto's full year results by retaining their buy rating with a trimmed price target of $143.70.

Based on the current Rio Tinto share price of $116.56, this implies potential upside of 23% for investors between now and this time next year.

In addition, some attractive and growing fully franked dividend yields are forecast in the near term.

Goldman has pencilled in dividends per share of US$4.30 (A$6.93) in FY 2025, US$4.31 (A$6.95) in FY 2026, and US$4.73 (A$7.63) in FY 2027. This equates to dividend yields of 5.9%, 6%, and 6.5%, respectively.

All in all, this means that a total potential 12-month return of approximately 29% could be on offer here according to the broker.

Why is it tipping this ASX 200 heavyweight as a buy?

The note reveals that there are a number of reasons why it thinks investors should be buying the miner's shares.

One of those reasons is its exposure to hottest commodity in the world this year, copper. It said:

FCF/dividend yield of ~6% in 2025E and ~8%/~6% in 2026E driven by our bullish view on aluminium and copper (~45-50% of group EBITDA by 2026).

In addition, the broker highlights the attractive valuation of the Rio Tinto share price compared to peers. It adds:

Relative valuation: trading at c. ~0.7x NAV (A$163.4/sh) vs. peers (BHP ~0.8x NAV and FMG ~1.1x NAV) and c. ~5.5x NTM EBITDA at GSe base case, below the historical average of ~6-7x.

Overall, this could make it worth considering the mining giant if you are looking for exposure to this side of the share market.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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