The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0833 GMT - The U.S. equities market could see further volatility until Washington pauses its trade war with the rest of the world, OCBC analysts write in a note. Overnight, Trump signed an order to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as well as an additional 10% on those from China. This led to a sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P down 1.76% while 10-year treasury yields fell to 4.13% from 4.20%. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year if tariffs boost inflation, they add. OCBC expects U.S. GDP growth to slow from a strong 2.8% last year to a solid 2.2% this year, while China's growth is anticipated to drop to 4.2% from 5.0%. OCBC forecasts U.S. tariffs of 20% imposed for a full year may shave up to 1 percentage point from China's GDP growth. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0817 GMT - China's banking sector should see higher cost efficiency over the long run with the use of artificial intelligence, DBS analysts write in a note. Chinese bank stocks have recently underperformed the market due to sector rotation following the emergence of DeepSeek, DBS says. However, China banks are worth looking at in the medium term as economic uncertainty is expected to persist under the base-case scenario, DBS says. In the long term, lenders should could benefit from AI-driven cost savings in risk control and customer service, DBS says. Among Chinese banks, DBS's top picks are China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank as they are likely to benefit more from fintech and AI applications. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0816 GMT - The profitability of Singapore banks are likely to remain broadly stable this year, Moody's Ratings analysts say in a note. Strong 2024 results position them well against macroeconomic and market challenges that may arise this year, they say, noting U.S. tariffs and sector-specific exposures like commercial real estate. The decline in net interest margin seen among the banks will likely be modest due to fewer rate cuts the analysts say, adding that the drop will likely be offset by mid- to high- single-digit loan growth. In addition, a robust fee income from wealth management as well as card and loan-related fees may also support non-interest income growth, they add.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0731 GMT - Srisawad Corp.'s balance-sheet constraints are likely easing, Thanachart Securities' Sarachada Sornsong says in a research report as the brokerage maintains the stock's buy rating. Its debenture-market situation is improving, with the company and subsidiary Srisawad Capital 1969 having successfully issued 3 billion baht and 1 billion baht of debentures in November 2024 and January 2025, respectively. The Thai company's clean-up of its nonperforming loans has been mostly completed, substantially improving its financial position. However, the brokerage cuts its earnings forecasts for Srisawad by average of 3.3% over 2026-2028 to reflect more conservative loan-growth assumptions. It lowers the stock's target price to THB44.00 from THB47.00. Shares are unchanged at THB34.25. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0447 GMT - Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark overnight policy rate steady at 3.00% in March, according to seven economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Bank Negara may stand pat in its March meeting, as its current stance supports economic growth amid stable inflation, DBS economists Taimur Baig and Ma Tieying say in a note. However, rising external risks, such as U.S.-led trade protectionism and potential inflationary pressures from domestic policy changes, including the RON95 subsidy reforms in mid-2025, could complicate future rate decisions, they say. With regional central banks turning dovish to sustain growth, Malaysia is likely to face increasing pressure to ease policy, especially if U.S. tariffs on key exports--such as semiconductors--significantly impact the growth outlook, they add. The rate decision is due Thursday.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0422 GMT - The outlook for Malaysia's banking sector seems neutral, as ROE expansion could be constrained by moderating earnings growth, AmInvestment Bank analyst Kelvin Ong says in a note. He warns that economic growth faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions amid trade protectionist policies by major economies. These challenges may prompt further regional monetary policy easing to support growth, he adds.Large-cap local banks have guided for 5%-7% loan growth for 2025, while deposit growth may remain slow, following the end of deposit competition, leading to a slight compression in net interest margins, he reckons. AmInvestment Bank keeps a neutral rating on Malaysia's banking sector, maintaining buy ratings for CIMB, Hong Leong Bank, and RHB Bank and an underweight rating for Maybank, citing valuation concerns. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2236 GMT [Dow Jones]--President Donald Trump's reiterated plan to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada goods will have meaningful consequences, including a recession in Mexico as the most likely scenario, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a research note. In the U.S., inflation could be 0.3 percentage points to 0.6 percentage points higher over the next three to four months, the analysts say. When it comes to trading, the sectors at most risk from increased tariffs are IT hardware and equipment companies, autos, and subsets of the consumer sector. Still, Trump could speak with the leaders of Mexico and Canada and agree to another postponement in the next few hours, the analysts add. (sabela.ojea@wsj.com)

2251 GMT - Australian Finance Group gets a new bull in Macquarie, which believes earnings momentum is turning positive. Macquarie, upgrading AFG to outperform from neutral, highlights a fast start to 2H. In January, AFG fielded a 26% on-year rise in residential lodgements and a 31% improvement in securities settlements. "AFG Home Loan product activity and margin stabilization support the outlook for earnings," Macquarie says. "Valuation is supported by a 7% dividend yield and 11x 1-year forward PE." AFG ended Monday at A$1.57, below Macquarie's A$1.68 price target. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1816 GMT - End of month selling seen last week is being counteracted by a stronger start to March for gold -- with front-month gold futures ending up 1.9% to $2,890.20 an ounce. Today's uptick brings gold back close to the $2,900/oz mark, with trading over the unprecedented $3,000/oz level appearing to be tough to come by. But whether or not gold is truly under pressure depends on if and how new tariffs are implemented, and how that may change the appetite of central banks for gold. "Most of the widening in the trade deficit reflects a surge in gold imports-which are excluded from GDP-driven by tariff fears," says Goldman Sachs in a note. Most-active gold futures are up in afternoon trading, breaking through the $2,900/oz mark. SPDR Gold rises 1.2%.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1807 GMT - Burlington Stores' 2.0 initiatives are starting to deliver meaningful financial benefits, with its 4Q results expected to be strong, UBS analysts say in a research note. The off-price retailer's price-to-earnings ratio could rebound if the company provides a first-quarter and FY25 guidance within analysts expectations, the analysts say. "We believe once Burlington gives its 1Q25 guide, it will no longer be an overhang on the stock and thus investors will refocus on the FY25 and long-term outlooks, which we believe remain strong," the analysts say. Still, they believe sentiment is mixed and, therefore, there's room to improve. Shares fall 3.3% to $241. (sabela.ojea@wsj.com; @sabelaojeaguix)

1350 GMT - Supply of new euro covered bonds is expected to rise in March, surpassing February's supply of nearly 16 billion euros ($16.6 billion), ING's Marine Leleux says in a note. New euro covered bonds issuance increased by 1 billion euros in February, compared to the same period a year ago, Leleux says. Even with the higher supply, euro covered bonds redemptions exceeded new bonds supply, she says. "Indeed, the high redemptions level at nearly 18 billion euros brought the net covered bond issuances at [minus] 2 billion euros," Leleux says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 04, 2025 04:20 ET (09:20 GMT)

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