The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0859 ET - Oil futures are higher, with support from some positive Chinese manufacturing data and diminished expectations for a quick agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war after last week's contentious meeting between President Trump and Ukraine's Zelensky. "To the extent that geo-political headlines will continue to drive much of oil price direction this month, developments of recent days would appear to tilt bullish rather than bearish," Ritterbusch says in a note. Participants are watching for details of U.S. import tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods. After an initial rise in oil on the Feb. 1 tariff announcement, perception has shifted more toward concerns about the negative impact on oil demand, the firm adds. WTI is up 0.5% at $70.12 a barrel, and Brent is 0.6% higher at $73.23 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0854 ET - A $31 billion January month-over-month increase in the U.S.'s trade deficit in goods shocked economists when the initial estimate landed Friday. Many assumed that importers were trying to get ahead of tariffs. The number sent the 1Q GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed plummeting, because net imports subtract from GDP. Goldman Sachs offers a more benign explanation. The investment bank thinks that physical gold imports to the U.S. rose to around $25 billion last month--a huge surge, indeed intended to front-run tariffs. But gold imports don't factor into the GDP calculation, Goldman says. If Goldman is right, the 1Q GDP impact of the soaring January goods deficit might not be nearly as bad as initially feared. (matt.grossman@wsj.com, @mattgrossman)

0828 ET - Base metal prices rise as positive Chinese manufacturing data buoyed market sentiment. LME three-month nickel and LME three-month zinc are leading the pack, both up 1.3% at $15,800 a metric ton and $2,836 a ton, respectively, as China's manufacturing PMI data returned to expansion territory, Britannia Global Markets' Neil Welsh says in a note. Market focus is turning to China's National People's Congress for further details around potential economic support measures and stimulus, adding further optimism to the market, Welsh adds. LME three-month copper is up 0.4% at $9,396.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum is up 0.5% at $2,616.50 a ton. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0752 ET - Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol's more than $90 million compensation package has drawn some caution ahead of the company's March 12 shareholders meeting. Glass Lewis advised shareholders to vote against Niccol's pay, calling the price tag "staggering" and questioning the company's succession planning. Institutional Shareholder Services recommended approval, saying the disclosure surrounding the large award was robust. Starbucks said Niccol's pay reflected his transformative role at the company, was performance based and accounted for his equity forfeited from Chipotle. (heather.haddon@wsj.com; @heatherhaddon)

0713 ET - Two executive orders from Trump over the weekend could severely hamper Canadian lumber, making the looming 25% tariffs worse for a weakened industry. Scotiabank's Ben Isaacson says that classifying lumber as a national security issue is the first that will be solved by laxer regulations, opening up federal land to harvest, as well as potential surgical tariffs on the industry. Isaacson says this has the potential to 'stack' on the looming 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. "If all of these taxes move forward, it's hard to see how parts of the Canadian Paper & Forestry Products sector aren't ravaged," he says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Gold futures rise on a weaker U.S. dollar and market uncertainty. Futures are up 1.2% to $2,882.90 a troy ounce. Volatility is likely in the short term as geopolitical and economic factors affect sentiment, Exness strategist Maria Patti says in a note. Additional U.S. tariffs could potentially intensify trade tensions and drive investors towards safe-haven assets, though a possible rollback of levies on Mexico and Canada could boost market confidence and spark a risk-on attitude, Patti says. Peace talks in Europe add to gold's uncertain trajectory. Optimism and hopes of de-escalation in Ukraine could be revived after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's meeting with European leaders, Patti writes. Upcoming U.S. economic data, including PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls, could also play a role--strong data could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and weigh on gold, she adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0544 ET - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.1% at $9,368 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.35% at $2,613.0 a ton. Resilient demand and limited supply growth should keep the refined copper market tight in the second half of 2025 and through 2026, keeping JPMorgan medium-term bullish on prices. A near-term pullback is possible on slack Chinese demand and potential U.S. tariff volatility, though global demand should begin stressing copper balances later this year, JPM analysts say in a note. U.S. inventory builds ahead of a potential copper tariff could leave the rest of the world shorter on copper supplies than expected, driving more significant copper tightening in China and Asia into the summer, JPM says. The bank sees copper rising to $10,400 a ton over the second half of 2025. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0541 ET - The spread between summer and winter European gas contracts remains inverted but has recently narrowed, according to data from Argus Media. Since late October, summer contracts have been trading above winter contracts, offering little incentive to store gas. The TTF summer 2025 contract is currently priced just more than 1.50 euros a megawatt hour above the 2025-26 winter contract, marking a significant narrowing from the 6-euros-a-megawatt-hour spread seen in late January-early February, Argus data shows. Meanwhile, EU storage sites entered March 38% full, well below the 62% level registered in the year-earlier period. "Stockpiles are certainly below average for the time of the year," says Natasha Fielding, head of European gas pricing at Argus Media. "But Europe has seen lower. On March 1, 2018, during the 'beast from the east' cold snap, EU sites were 28% full." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0517 ET - A potential resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe if a peace deal with Ukraine is reached would face significant legal and logistical challenges, Argus Media's Natasha Fielding says. Several arbitration cases between Russia's gas giant Gazprom and European buyers would hinder the process, while sanctions on the Yamal-Europe pipeline and damage to the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines would complicate matters even further. "And that's even before the political side of things," Argus's head of European gas pricing says, highlighting that the EU aims to end Russian fossil fuels imports by 2027. "Obviously things can change, but there are lots of question marks," Fielding says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0515 ET - Palm oil ended lower amid easing supply constraints and improving production expectations. The palm-oil market is expected to enter a consolidation phase as traders await February's official demand and supply data by the Malaysia Palm Oil Board, which may provide insight into the market's near-term direction, Phillip Nova analyst Lim Tai An said in a research note. The cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri estimated the nation's palm oil exports fell 8.51% on month in February. The analyst pegs the resistance level at 4,550 ringgit a ton and support at 4,485 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery ended 71 ringgit lower at 4,483 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0444 ET - European natural-gas prices surged in early trade amid growing uncertainty over peace talks following a public clash between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 5.2% at 46.65 euros a megawatt hour after closing at 44.32 euros last week. Talks to end the war in Ukraine had raised prospects that some Russian gas flows could resume soon, pushing prices lower despite concerns over fast depleting inventories in Europe. However, the outlook now appears uncertain, with European leaders set to forge a peace plan to present to Trump. Meanwhile, the market is bracing for a potential cold snap later in March that could boost energy consumption. EU storage levels are currently 38.2% full. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0429 ET - Gold futures rise on a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand. Futures are up 1.1% at $2,878.90 a troy ounce. Geopolitical concerns have risen as hopes of a potential peace deal in the short-term between Russia and Ukraine fade, boosting bullion's safe-haven appeal. The increased concerns follow U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance clashing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House. A number of European officials have expressed shock at the event and defense stocks in the European Union have jumped in response. At the same time, the Trump administration's reaffirmation of tariff plans on Canada, Mexico and China from Tuesday have further added to financial market concerns, driving a risk-off attitude. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 03, 2025 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)

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