金吾财讯 | 天风证券发研报指，阿里巴巴(09988)FY25Q3实现收入2802亿元，超彭博一致预期1.0%。经调整EBITA为549亿元，超彭博一致预期2.4%。调整后净利润为511亿元，超彭博一致预期10.7%。股份回购方面，截至FY25Q3，公司回购了1.19亿股普通股，总金额为13亿美元。截至2024年12月31日，股票回购计划剩余授权金额为207亿美元。该行表示，Capex大超预期：FY25Q3资本支出为318亿元，超彭博一致预期106%。公司表示未来三年的资本支出预期会超过过去十年，未来三年将支出3800亿元投资云计算和AI基础设施。未来三年将是公司建设云和AI基础设施最集中和最高水平投资的时期，反映了公司内部和外部客户的巨大需求。该行预计阿里巴巴FY2025-2027年收入为9929/10815/11802亿元(前值9906/10803/11654亿元)；考虑到公司短期AIDC业务投入增加，长期AIDC、本地生活、阿里云等业务盈利能力有望逐步提高，该行预计FY2025-2027年归属股东净利润(Non-GAAP)为1471/1848/2008亿元(前值1571/1763/1895亿元)，维持“买入”评级。
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