Green Dot Corporation (NYSE:GDOT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.3% to US$7.65 in the week after its latest annual results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 10% toUS$0.50 per share. Revenues of US$1,718,370,000 did beat expectations by 2.3%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Green Dot

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Green Dot are now predicting revenues of US$1.89b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Green Dot forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.12 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.50 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 24% to US$9.75, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Green Dot analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Green Dot's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Green Dot is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Green Dot. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Green Dot's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Dot going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Green Dot Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.