MW Strategy's stock surges just in time. Why it's not enough to halt the bear trend.

By Tomi Kilgore

The stock's rally, on the back of Trump's call for a U.S. crypto reserve, comes a day after it flirted with dropping below a key technical indicator

Shares of Strategy charged higher Monday, as investors in the software company and de facto bitcoin play cheered President Trump's call for a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, but then backed off after hitting a technical wall.

The stock's gain came just in time. On Friday, it flirted with breaking below a key chart level that many may have seen as the line in the sand for bulls.

Strategy's stock $(MSTR.AU)$ shot up as much as 15.5% just after Monday's open to an intraday high of $295.10, before paring most of its gains. It was up just 3.6% in recent morning trading.

Read: Crypto prices soar after Trump says strategic reserve will include bitcoin, XRP, Solana and others.

Strategy, formerly doing business as MicroStrategy Inc., said Monday that it owned 499,096 bitcoins (BTCUSD) as of March 2, which would be valued at $45.1 billion at current prices.

The stock has been in technical trouble for months, but the bear trend was confirmed as bitcoin started selling in February. The stock had closed Friday 46% below its Nov. 20 record close of $473.83, and closed the day before at the lowest price since the election.

Also read: Why MicroStrategy's stock chart now looks so bearish.

The 200-day moving average, which many chart watchers view as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends was basically the last line of defense for bulls. It currently comes in at $232.68.

On Friday, the stock briefly dipped below the 200-DMA early in the session, but closed above it. That was the stock's first test of the line since early September.

While the stock's sharp bounce off that line took bulls out of the frying pan, it put them right into the fire of heavy resistance. And so far that resistance has held.

Under the technical property of support-resistance reversals, the stock's upside barrier comes from what used to be a strong support zone roughly between $279 and $293. Above that is another previous-support area roughly between $304 to $322.

If that's not enough, the 50-day moving average, a short-term trend tracker, comes in at about $331.

And even if all those resistance zones can be cleared, the longer-term bearish trend remains intact until the stock can break the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that's been in place the past few months. The stock would have to get above the Jan. 21 high of $404.42 to break that pattern.

With all that work ahead of them, it's no wonder that the initial premarket foray by bulls into that resistance zone was quickly beaten back after the opening bell.

The technical barriers aren't the only thing bulls have to deal with. Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, is skeptical that the Trump administration could follow through with a crypto reserve, especially under the current economic environment.

"While one can't entirely rule it out, it would be incredibly financially irresponsible for the Federal Government to actually make open-market bitcoin purchases considering the deficit situation," O'Rourke wrote.

Strategy's stock has to climb 5.4% from current levels just to get back to the bottom of the first key resistance zone. For bulls waiting for another catalyst to provide a boost, they may have to wait until the White House crypto summit scheduled for Friday.

Meanwhile, other cryptocurrency plays also pared earlier gains. Coinbase Global Inc. shares $(COIN)$ ran up as much as 8.2% after the open but were recently trading up 1.8%, while Robinhood Markets Inc.'s stock (HOOD) erased an earlier gain of as much as 9.5% to be up 0.5% in recent trading.

Shares of Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$, which owned 11,509 bitcoin valued at $1.1 billion at the end of 2024, were up 2%, after being up as much as 3.7% at their intraday high.

-Tomi Kilgore

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March 03, 2025 11:48 ET (16:48 GMT)

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