【OPEC的产量回补将带来了Q2过剩的实际增加，原油下探破前低的概率加大】金十期货3月4日讯，今日上海原油期货SC2504收跌3.38%，继续冲击区间下沿。本次原油下行的主要因素是北京时间3月3日晚间举行的OPEC线上会议，会议显示自2025年4月起进行量级为220万桶/日的产量回归，折合每个月增产约15万桶/日左右。考虑到俄罗斯和伊朗的产量并无明显的减量，我们基于当下要素静态推演最新的平衡表显示，OPEC的产量回补将带来了Q2过剩的实际增加，因此，我们认为供需带来的价格重心下移的时间节点可能会进一步提前，原油下探破前低的概率加大。后续策略方面，前期关注的WTI正套策略可逐渐了结，建议后续EFS的低买操作。
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