Soft earnings didn't appear to concern PostNL N.V.'s (AMS:PNL) shareholders over the last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.

Check out our latest analysis for PostNL

Examining Cashflow Against PostNL's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

PostNL has an accrual ratio of -0.14 for the year to December 2024. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €69m, well over the €18.0m it reported in profit. PostNL's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Surprisingly, given PostNL's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by €4.0m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If PostNL doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On PostNL's Profit Performance

In conclusion, PostNL's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Considering the aforementioned, we think that PostNL's profits are probably a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability; although we'd be confident in that conclusion if we saw a cleaner set of results. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of PostNL.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.