金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，2月PMI数据超季节性且超预期的主要原因：一是出口超预期、强于季节性。二是春节节后的季节性效应，在季节性因子被低估的情况下带来的读数高估。往后看，1-2月出口有望看到超预期的实际动能表现。市场对1-2月出口增速预期较低，一是由于2月关税落地导致对美出口增速的回落；二是由于2024年同期的高基数带来的同比读书压力。该行认为，本次PMI数据出口订单指数回升，或表明10%的关税对出口造成的压力有限，尽管高基数确会带来同比读数较2024年12月的回落，转口和非美替代的逻辑有望支撑2024年第一季度出口的实际动能。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.