CDL shares down more than 5% upon trading resumption

The Edge Singapore
02 Mar

Various analysts have already downgraded the stock.

Shares of City Developments, facing an internal tussle that has reached the courts, dropped 28 cents, or 5.47% upon resumption of trading today.

Trading in the company's shares were halted on Feb 26. A results briefing was cancelled at the last minute and within hours, the Singapore business community was rocked by news of a fallout between executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng and his son, group CEO Sherman Kwek.

"Shareholders would note that the news reports have reported on various allegations made in respect of the disagreement within the board.

"The company will not comment on the validity of these allegations, as many of these allegations are the subject of the court proceedings in relation to the Application, which is on-going," says CDL on March 3.

"CDL’s business operations remain fully functional and unaffected. It is business as usual. Mr Sherman Kwek remains the Group Chief Executive Officer until such time as there is a Board resolution to change company leadership," the company adds. 

Amid the boardroom-cum-family dispute, analysts have downgraded their calls and reduced their target prices. 

UOB Kay Hian's Adrian Loh, in his Feb 27 note, downgraded the stock from "buy" to "hold", as he points out that the FY2024 numbers missed both his, and consensus' estimates.

"However, this was overshadowed by news of a very public leadership tussle," says Loh. "While the company has extremely valuable assets in Singapore and globally, we believe the stock will likely find it difficult to perform given this overhang," adds Loh. 

His revised target price of $4.60, from $7, is pegged to 2 standard deviations below its five-year average price-to-book (P/B) of 0.72 times. 

"Without a swift resolution to the leadership tussle and more active capital recycling, CDL’s share price will not likely approach these levels any time soon," cautions Loh.

"Professionalising the management and clearing out the factions within the board, reconciliation of the family members, and/or putting up the company for sale are clearly measures that could lead to near-term pain relief for CDL’s long-suffering minority shareholders," he adds.

In their Feb 27 note, Derek Tan and Tabitha Foo of DBS Group Research see some silver lining. "While this is likely to dampen investor sentiment in the interim, we take the view that fundamentals remain intact, as key management continues to run the company."

They point out that CDL is trading at an attractive valuation of 0.5 times P/B (with book value at cost) and 0.3 times P/RNAV, below the lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis.

"With the resolution of the board dispute, we anticipate a renewed focus on driving shareholder returns and profitability, supporting a gradual recovery in share price," they add.

Nonetheless, while keeping their "buy" call, Tan and Foo cut their target price from $10.50 to $6.70, which is based on a 60% discount to RNAV, versus a previous valuation multiple of 35% discount. In contrast, the sector average is a discount of 50%.

For them, re-rating will come from clarity and resolution from disagreement at the board, and realisation of RNAV with the completion of development projects and potential asset recycling.

Similarly, OCBC Investment Research has maintained its "buy" call but with a reduced fair value of $6.02, down from $6.57, based on a wider RNAV discount of 60% from 45% previously. "We expect uncertainties over CDL’s outlook and potential overhang on its share price until the matter is resolved," says OCBC.

In his Feb 26 note, Brandon Lee of Citi Research figures that the potential impact of this episode is hard to quantify. "We think uncertainty regarding the board and company leadership, as well as lengthiness of a potential court case, could be a share price overhang in the short term."

Lee, referring Leng Peck's resignation back in Oct 2020, recalls that CDL's share price dropped by a fifth over the following fortnight. "Nonetheless, we believe CDL is very under-owned by investors, hence, any positive resolution would be a major share price catalyst in the longer term," says Lee, who has a “buy” call and $9.51 target price, premised on his view on how CDL now trades at less than a third of its book value. 

In their Feb 26 note, JP Morgan analysts Mervin Song and Terence M Khi describe what happened at CDL as a "dynastic discord" arising from the culmination of years of frustration, underperformance and public disagreement among certain members of the extended Kwek family. 

"We hope for a positive resolution to the dispute and a family reconciliation," write Song and Khi, although they have reduced their target price from $6.05 to $4.85, which is based on a 60% discount to our RNAV estimate of $12.10 per share.

CDL shares last closed at $5.12 on Feb 25, down 8.9% in the past year. 

Read more about the developing story at CDL on our microsite:

  • This week's cover story: Generational shift at City Developments
  • Urgency of court application stems from disruption of CDL’s corporate structure; Phillip Yeo sees saga as distraction (Feb 28)
  • Primary reason behind CDL’s dispute is related to M&C board advisor Dr Catherine Wu, says Sherman Kwek (Feb 27)
  • CDL sees downgrades and target price cuts from analysts who still see silver linings (Feb 27)
  • CDL board fight cools with undertaking from two new IDs (Feb 26)
  • Sherman Kwek to remain as group CEO of CDL; finds episode 'incredibly disappointing' (Feb 26)
  • Father and son battle it out in court for control for CDL (Feb 26)
  • CDL calls for trading halt, cancels FY2024 results briefing (Feb 26)
  • City Developments' FY2024 patmi falls 36.6% as gearing rises to 117% (Feb 26)

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