The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Concord New Energy Group Limited (HKG:182), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. The stock price has risen 4.2% to HK$0.50 over the past week. We'd be curious to see if the downgrade is enough to reverse investor sentiment on the business.

After this downgrade, Concord New Energy Group's twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥2.9b in 2025. This would be a modest 5.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 22% to CN¥0.12. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥3.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.15 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Concord New Energy Group

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$0.79 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Concord New Energy Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Concord New Energy Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Concord New Energy Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Concord New Energy Group. Lamentably, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the market itself. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Concord New Energy Group.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for Concord New Energy Group going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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