Shareholders might have noticed that The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.5% to US$23.08 in the past week. Revenues of US$11b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.55, missing estimates by 9.3%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mosaic after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Mosaic are now predicting revenues of US$12.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 304% to US$2.23. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.91 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a solid gain to earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$32.04, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Mosaic, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$44.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mosaic'shistorical trends, as the 9.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 9.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. So although Mosaic is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Mosaic's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Mosaic going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mosaic has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.