金吾财讯 | 啤酒股集体走强，华润啤酒(00291)涨4.02%，青岛啤酒股份(00168)涨2.36%，百威亚太(01876)涨1.14%。消息面上，国泰君安指出，啤酒板块2025需求侧有望确认底部，盈利改善仍有空间。此外，预计2025年行业整体分红率水平将同比提升，其中青岛啤酒、华润啤酒2025-26年有望持续提升，嘉士伯、百威2025年或将保持2024年分红水平，燕京中期分红率有提升空间。该行预计，各家啤酒公司资本开支项2025-26年或呈下降趋势，整体股东回报不断增强，板块后续高分红、稳增长特征持续凸显。中信证券表示，预计2025年啤酒原材料价格波动幅度小于2024年，部分原材料价格仍有下行空间如大麦和玻璃等，但铝价近期呈现上涨趋势，或将抵消大麦等原材料价格下行所带来的成本下降空间，整体来看，该行预计2025年啤酒成本整体稳定，有望小幅提升酒企的盈利水平，看好酒企在消费政策端的持续刺激、餐饮场景的恢复下实现2025年的业绩企稳增长。
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