Corporate America isn't talking about anything but tariffs right now

Yahoo Finance
Yesterday

Tariffs are the talk of corporate America right now. 

As updates on President Trump's tariff plans have prompted whipsaw action in markets over the past several days, mentions of tariffs on earnings calls have skyrocketed. 

According to Bloomberg data, tariffs were mentioned 384 times on earnings conference calls over a three-month rolling period through March 5. In the past five years, no similar period has seen more than 100 mentions.

As seen in the chart below, sectors like Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) are leading the mentions as tariffs could increase costs for companies in those sectors. But what's also notable is that tariff talk has been seen across earnings calls in all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

This suggests tariffs could have a widespread impact on the US economy and the stock market. 

As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump has implemented 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and added 20% duties on China. He's also threatened tariffs on the European Union and ordered a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum into the US from all countries.

Equity strategists have also warned tariffs could be a headwind to earnings for the S&P 500 index as a whole this year. 

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Citi equity strategist Drew Pettit told Yahoo Finance that if Trump's proposed tariffs were put into place, it'd likely shave about $3 off the index's earnings per share every three months the levies aren't lifted. Typically, strategists would model a lower year-end projection for the S&P 500's return if earnings aren't expected to grow by as much. But for now, that's not the base case.  

"We don't really know," Pettit said regarding the chances Trump's tariffs are in place for an extended period. "So when you don't have that confidence, or even just some base case to really throw out there, you get these air pockets [in market action] to some extent." 

On a company-specific level, tariffs have had a more direct impact. 

Take Wednesday's market action, for example. In the afternoon, the White House announced a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs involving US automakers GM (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA). All three stocks, which had recently slumped amid fears of rising prices, rallied on the news. 

Other companies haven't fared as well. In just the past week, executives from Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) have all warned that tariffs could materially impact their business. 

On a media call, Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said around 55% of its products are sourced from China "in some way, shape, or form," and another 20% come from Mexico. Barry added it's "highly likely" consumers will see a price impact from tariffs. 

Target CFO Jim Lee said they're expecting "outsized profit pressures" in the current quarter due in part to "tariff uncertainty." 

Tariffs have also dominated economic data releases. 

For example, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI, which surveys businesses in the industry, was weaker than expected in February. The prices paid index — a measure of what manufacturers are paying for raw materials — surged to a reading of 62.4, up from 54.9 the month prior and its highest level since July 2022.

"The whole story here is really around the tariff issue," Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore told Yahoo Finance, further explaining that the price increases lead to lower new orders from businesses and also could impact hiring plans.

"If you stay on the path that we're headed on, I think it's going to be tough, a tough route [for the US economy]," Fiore said.

President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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