【官员鸽派发言强化降息预期,关注今夜非农表现】金十期货3月7日讯,3月6日,COMEX黄金价格下跌0.21%至2919.80美元/盎司,沪金主连上涨0.17%至680.60元/克。降息方面,欧洲央行消息人士表示四月暂停降息的可能性正在增加,利率仍然可能进一步下调,2.5%不太可能是本轮周期的底部。美联储理事沃勒表示美联储可能会在3月后进行降息,2025年进行两次降息的中位数预期仍然合理。最新CME“美联储观察”数据显示,3月维持利率不变的概率为91%,降息25个基点的概率为9%,到5月维持当前利率不变的概率为50.8%,累计降息25个基点的概率为45.3%,累计降息50个基点的概率为4%。综合而言,美黄金前期经过一波上涨后,当前处于调整阶段,市场在等待新的方向指引。
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