North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Edge Up Ahead of Jobs Report

Dow Jones
07 Mar

OPENING CALL

Stock futures edged higher and bond yields drifted lower on Friday as investors tried to make sense of yet another tariff U-turn by President Trump and waited for a jobs report likely to show how the economy is holding up.

Barring any further tariff surprises, the nonfarm payrolls report for February is most likely to dictate the mood, either soothing or bolstering fears about cracks in the labor market.

Also on slate is a speech from the Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell on the outlook for the economy.

Stocks to Watch

Broadcom rose 13% after the semiconductor and software posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings and issued strong guidance.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 20% after fiscal first-quarter earnings and second-quarter guidance missed Wall Street expectations and the company said it would begin a cost-cutting program.

Marvell Technology was up 1.5% after sinking nearly 20% on Thursday following fiscal first-quarter guidance that disappointed investors hopeful of more positive forecasts.

Gap was up 18% after it topped fourth-quarter earnings expectations and delivered stronger-than-expected profit guidance for the current fiscal year.

Walgreens Boots Alliance will be taken private by Sycamore Partners in a $23.7 billion deal. Walgreens rose 5.6%.

Fiscal second-quarter earnings at Costco Wholesale missed analysts' estimates, sending shares down 1.3%.

Intuitive Machines tumbled 35% after difficulties landing the company's Athena spaceship near the moon's south pole on Thursday.

Watch For:

Nonfarm payrolls report for Feb; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks

Today's TopHeadlines/Must Reads:

- Cyber Companies Stress AI as Core Future Technology

- China Scolds 'Two-Faced' U.S. in Rebuke of Trump's Agenda

- The Grim Realities of U.S.-Bound Migrants Stuck in Mexico

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar hovered near four-month lows as investors exercised caution ahead of the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later.

The currency has come under recent pressure as concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth prompt markets to price in further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

That means the payrolls data at 1330 GMT will take particular importance.

Softer-than-expected jobs figures could further weaken the dollar, Swissquote Bank said.

The worse-case-scenario would be lower-than-expected payrolls combined with higher-than-expected wage growth as that would leave the Fed facing a slowing economy with limited room to give support, Swissquote added.

The Canadian dollar has limited scope to rise after Trump temporarily delayed tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico, ING said.

The European Central Bank's more cautious stance on interest rate cuts combined with Germany's plans to increase fiscal spending provide a boost to the euro , Pepperstone said.

Sterling rose against the dollar but fell versus the euro as economic conditions diverged .

Bonds:

Being long Treasurys is still rewarding considering the risks, particularly with tariff headlines not going away anytime soon, Pepperstone said.

In addition, growth worries are likely to continue to intensify, particularly as government spending cuts in the U.S. increasingly take effect, it added.

Friday's potential drivers include the nonfarm payrolls data.

Energy:

Oil prices rose in early trade but remained on track for a significant weekly loss amid fluctuating U.S. trade policies and OPEC+ output hike plans.

Brent crude and WTI were both up after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. will intensify pressure on Iran and won't hesitate to go "all in" on sanctions on Russia if it helps in peace negotiations.

Still, "oil markets are dealing with renewed uncertainty on the supply side and a darkening outlook on the demand side," said BMI, Fitch's research unit.

The U.S. partially pulled back tariffs on some goods from Mexico and Canada, adding further uncertainty over President Trump's trade strategy and its impact on global economic growth.

Meanwhile, news that additional OPEC+ supply will soon hit the market is increasing downward pressure on prices.

European natural-gas prices regained some ground after tumbling in the previous trading session.

U.S.

Trump is pushing for a quick end to the war in Ukraine, raising prospects that Russian gas flows could resume soon, while EU officials delayed the release of a proposal to end the bloc's reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports.

Plus, the European Commission recommended adding more flexibility to storage filling targets, relieving some pressure off the market amid growing concerns over fast depleting inventories.

Metals:

Gold futures were broadly flat, as market sentiment stayed cautious on geopolitical developments and trade tensions.

Geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars and weak economic growth have driven gold's recent rally, XS.com said.

A meeting in Saudi Arabia next week between U.S. and Ukrainian officials to discuss ceasefire efforts in the war with Russia and Trump's temporary delay of some Mexican and Canadian tariffs have left the market in wait-and-see mode in regards to safe-haven assets.

Comex gold futures' bullish technical setup was intact on the daily chart, as the contract closed above the 20-day simple moving average on Thursday, RHB Retail Research said.

The short-term moving average continues trending upward now, providing support for the bullish setup.

If the precious metal undergoes profit-taking, it could pull back and test support at $2,850/oz, according to RHB.

Stronger support should emerge at $2,800/oz. On the upside, the nearest resistance is pegged at $3,000/oz.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

British American Tobacco's Canadian Litigation Plan Gets Court Approval

British American Tobacco said a Canadian court approved its plan to settle outstanding litigation in the country.

The FTSE 100 cigarette maker-which houses the Kent, Dunhill and Lucky Strike brands-on Friday said that the Ontario Superior Court of Justice approved the plan of compromise and arrangement for its Canadian subsidiary Imperial Tobacco Canada.

   
 
 

Universal Music Shares Rise on Subscription Revenue Beat

Shares in Universal Music rose on Friday after the record label behind Taylor Swift posted subscription revenue growth that was ahead of consensus estimates.

In morning trading in Europe, shares rose 4% to 27.07 euros.

   
 
 

Tesla's Fortunes Fall as Musk Rises in Trump World

Few brands have their image as closely tied to their CEO as Tesla. For most of the electric-car maker's history, that was good for business.

Elon Musk's pledge to reduce the world's reliance on fossil fuels and his push to broaden the appeal of electric cars attracted legions of buyers looking to make a statement-to declare their allegiance to his grand vision of techno-environmentalism.

   
 
 

Broadcom Earnings and AI Strength Should Win Over a Tougher Crowd

Broadcom's last earnings report made the chip maker a $1 trillion company. Its latest one should help it reclaim that mantle.

Broadcom helps tech companies like Google design their own processors for artificial-intelligence uses. So it benefits greatly from the many billions of dollars being poured into AI development by those companies.

   
 
 

Eurozone Grew More Strongly Than Thought at End of 2024

The eurozone economy grew a little more than previously estimated at the end of last year thanks to signs of more robust growth in some members of the currency area.

Total output grew 0.2% on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024 across the 20 nations that share the euro, final estimates from EU statistics agency Eurostat showed Friday. That was a stronger reading than the 0.1% estimated in February. The eurozone had at first been calculated to have stagnated over the final months of last year.

   
 
 

German Factory Orders Slump Again as Hopes Grow for Stimulus to Counter Tariff Threat

Orders at German factories fell back sharply at the start of the year, pointing to a continued slump in a beleaguered sector whose hope for a rebound lies in lower interest rates and a bump in government spending.

Factory orders fell back 7% on month in January in Europe's most important economy, according to data published Friday by Germany's statistics authority. That was a notably sharper decline than economists had estimated, and reverses the jump in demand booked the previous month, when there was a surge in big-ticket orders in the aerospace industry.

   
 
 

Syrian Forces Battle Insurgents in Serious Test for New Government

Syrian government forces are responding to a series of clashes and ambushes launched by partisans of the deposed Assad regime, the biggest domestic military challenge yet to the former rebel group trying to hold the country together with stretched manpower.

Government security forces launched an "extensive combing operation" along Syria's Mediterranean coast, the heartland of the Assads' Alawite religious minority, after gunmen loyal to the old regime launched deadly ambushes on security forces in the town of Jableh, according to the state news agency SANA.

   
 
 

Trump's Embrace of Putin Has Germany Thinking of Nuclear Weapons

BERLIN-President Trump's embrace of Russia is causing Europeans to rethink their security and giving currency to an idea the U.S. has long sought to avoid: a nuclear-armed Germany.

Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany's next chancellor, said Berlin should start talks about expanding the French and British nuclear deterrents to cover Europe, according to an interview the conservative politician did with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung weekly.

   
 
 

Trump Tells Cabinet Secretaries to Take Lead on Making Agency Cuts, Not Musk

WASHINGTON-President Trump told his cabinet secretaries that they should take the lead over billionaire Elon Musk in making personnel decisions related to their departments.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

March 07, 2025 06:13 ET (11:13 GMT)

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