金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2024年家居国补取得一定的效果，部分政策自由度大、灵活度高的城市或区域家居需求改善明显，但仍须注意本轮释放的需求以刚需为主，至于存量翻新需求的释放、结束家居行业消费降级的局面，预计仍有待后续政策进一步发力和优化。展望2025年，就当前已经出台新版家居国补政策的区域来看，似乎政策有趋严、标准提升的态势，但该行判断政策循序渐进的改善和放松仍是大方向，属地化补贴作为主基调的同时，各地政策有望提供更加友好的经营环境。考虑到地产交付面临的压力，该行判断2025年家居行业料延续“强预期、弱现实”的基本面特征，仍需把握合理估值区间，优选经营稳健性更好、长逻辑通畅的家居公司进行配置。2025开年以来，补贴空窗期的订单走弱，以及部分已出台2025年家居国补细则的省份条款趋严，导致近期板块情绪有所承压。该行认为政策的优化需要时间，后续伴随标杆城市的政策出台，各地政策循序渐进的优化预计是大概率事件，家居国补的效果依然值得期待。出口端，该行判断订单面临放缓压力，且盈利不确定性因素逐步发酵，出口态势会回归平稳，积极关注分化下的个股机会。
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