美国银行策略师本周以欧洲财政声明为由上调了对欧元的预测，现在预计欧元到年底前将达到1.15美元、到2026年底前将达到1.20美元，此前预测分别为1.10美元和1.15美元。

• “德国宣布的财政方案是欧元分水岭时刻，”Michalis Rousakis等该行策略师在报告中写道
  • “我们还认为欧元上行风险来自以下方面：（1） 欧盟增加国防支出；（2） 欧盟进行更多改革，不一定是财政改革；（3） 潜在的乌克兰和平协议，伴随着能源价格下跌”
  • “与其他资产类别相比，外汇对欧洲看跌（或不那么看涨）的因素考虑较多，而我们认为风险仍然是不对称的看涨”
  • “在美国方面，市场逐渐认识到政策的不确定性（财政、贸易等）会对美国经济增长产生负面影响，美联储进一步降息的预期再次出现”

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责任编辑：郭明煜

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