The full-year results for Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came in at US$801m, in line with estimates, while Resolute Mining reported a statutory loss of US$0.01 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Resolute Mining

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Resolute Mining is for revenues of US$756.9m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 5.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Resolute Mining forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.039 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$760.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.042 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 18% to AU$0.55, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Resolute Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$0.70 and the most bearish at AU$0.40 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Resolute Mining shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Resolute Mining's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Resolute Mining is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Resolute Mining. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Resolute Mining's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Resolute Mining's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Resolute Mining analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Resolute Mining's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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