金吾财讯 | 招商证券国际报告称,1月底DeepSeek - R1发布后,中国龙头互联网公司股价平均涨14%,未来12个月市盈率从11.6倍升至13倍。DeepSeek在AI推理效率和成本控制上实现重大突破,打破算力堆叠依赖,缩小中美AI技术差距,提升中国优质科技公司关注度。其发布还推动全球开源生态,削弱闭源模型壁垒,2月起在各类场景快速落地。该行表示,DeepSeek爆火后,阿里云、腾讯云等国内龙头云厂商,以及亚马逊AWS等国际云厂商纷纷接入,通过利润率更高的PaaS业务,为企业提供行业知识注入等服务,实现利润改善,但要警惕价格战。该行续指,未来关键在于验证财务收益,如阿里业绩会提到新增调用需求中60 - 70%为推理需求,预计95%大模型token将在云端传输,关注云需求带来的收入利润增长。同时,关注行业应用深化,如腾讯凭社交优势有望成AI Agent超级入口,以及竞争格局变化,因DeepSeek虽提升效率体验,却降低部分行业护城河。该行综合增长、竞争格局、估值等因素,中国互联网子行业优先级排序为广告>游戏=增值服务>云计算>本地生活>电商>直播。推荐阿里巴巴(09988)、腾讯(00700)、腾讯音乐(01698)。
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