金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，目前正处于淡旺季逐步切换的阶段，钢铁需求有望持续回升，总库存亦有望逐步由上升趋势转为下降趋势。展望来看，该行预期铁矿加速增产且需求难有较大提升，铁矿或进入宽松周期，钢铁成本掣肘因素有望逐渐改善，行业盈利中枢有望逐步修复。供给端来看，行业亏损已超两年时间，尾部钢企出现亏现金流情况，2024年两波主动性减产，供给脆弱性凸显，该行预期2025年供给端存在进一步减产甚至停产的可能。政策上看，超低排改造、环保、碳中和政策等都将重塑行业竞争格局，该行更看好具备环保与低碳优势的龙头公司。随着行业加快并购重组，集中度提升将带来盈利的长期修复。该行维持钢铁行业“增持”评级。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益；在环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。
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