【预计集运指数近期行情波动加大，单边趋势性行情暂需等待】金十期货3月5日讯，早盘集运欧线日内跌超10.00%，报1981.9点，据国泰君安期货分析，资金逻辑主要包括两点：一是现货持续降价以及部分长协下调引发资金对于6—8月旺季运费高度的不看好；二是美国对中国加收关税税率从10%加码至20%，引发市场对于中美在内的全球贸易的悲观预期；前期计价了较多乐观预期的06、08领跌。即期市场方面，3月运价震荡收跌，装载率环比修复但速度偏慢，未达到令运费止跌的水平。未来1—2周市场或围绕即期的弱势与4月涨价预期进行博弈。整体来看，04紧贴现货，10或以（新）长协价格进行底部估值锚定；06、08目前盘面对应3000美元/FEU，预计近期行情波动加大，单边趋势性行情暂需等待。策略上，考虑酌情加多06—10正套，10—12反套持有。
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