The shares of healthcare name Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS) have retreated from their Feb. 19, pre-earnings all-time high of $72.98. The stock has shed 11.9% so far this month, and is on track for its fourth loss in five sessions, last seen down 0.7% at $40.18. Despite this pullback, historical data suggests the security may be primed for a rebound.
Per a new study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, HIMS is now within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average. Shares have traded north of this trendline 80% of the time over the past two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days.
Similar pullbacks have historically led to strong short-term upside, with past instances resulting in a one-month gain 71% of the time, averaging a 10.6% return. A comparable move would put Hims & Hers Health stock near $44, extending its impressive 176.3% year-over-year lead.
Short sellers are backing off, with short interest down 20.8% in the last reporting period. However, the 46.12 million shares sold short account for 24.6% of the equity's available float, indicating there's still room for a short squeeze. Analysts remain cautious, leaving room for upgrades to act as a bullish catalyst as well, with nine of 14 covering firms maintaining a "hold" or worse rating on HIMS.
Options traders also lean bearish, with Hims & Hers Health stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.47 sitting in the 94th percentile of readings from the past month. Echoing this, the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.14 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 99th percentile of its annual range.
HIMS has consistently exceeded options traders' volatility expectations, as reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 90 out of 100. This metric suggests the stock has historically delivered larger-than-expected price swings.
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