汇丰发表研究报告指，中国煤价于春节后继续以超出预期的速度下跌。由于工业及取暖需求疲弱，电厂及渠道的煤炭库存持续堆积，并可能在今年3至5月的需求淡季进一步拖低煤炭现货价格。
汇丰预期，未来数个月的中国煤炭现货价格可能跌至每吨675元人民币(下同)的水平，也即是合同煤炭供应的基准价格，但预计价格跌幅将会减小。该行将全年预测由每吨800元下调至750元，并预计市场将由6月起复苏。
汇丰提及，早前预计2025年国内产量将按年增长3%，进口量持平。但在2024年实际产量更新后，该行预计国内供应将温和增长2%。鉴于库存问题，预计煤炭现货价格短期内将进一步下跌，但下行空间应不会太大。
另外，汇丰将中国神华(01088.HK) 2025至2026财年的盈利预测下调4%至7%，较市场共识低12%至14%，同时将其H股目标价由33港元下调至30港元，维持“持有”评级。另外，该行亦将中国神华2025至2026财年的派息预测由70%上调至75%。(js/k)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.