【原油破位下行，后市该如何看待？】金十期货3月6日讯，近日，国内外油价持续回落，布伦特原油2505合约一度下破70美元/桶，较春节前高点累计跌幅达11%，国内原油相对布伦特原油的溢价较此前明显回落。1. 国投期货能源首席分析师高明宇看来，推动国际油价破位下行的驱动有两方面因素。第一，俄乌、中东地缘和解大背景下供应担忧减弱。第二，8个欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国决定按既定计划自4月1日起逐步增加石油产量，以回撤2023年宣布的自愿减产措施，市场并未看到因低油价而推迟减产的动作，二季度后供需宽松压力或进入实质性兑现期。展望后市，原油期货快速下跌后存在技术性反弹诉求，基本面的变化亦导致其从当下位置进一步下行的持续性面临考量。在她看来，贸易战具有高博弈属性，周二美国商务部长已表示特朗普正在基于北美自贸协定框架考虑豁免加墨两国关税，贸易战主导的下行风险仍有变数。2. 南华期货能化分析师刘顺昌表示，短期油价持续走弱的态势或将延续。“供应端OPEC+增产，伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口量逐步恢复正常，原油市场供应逐步增加，不确定性下降，市场关注焦点转向需求端，尤其是美国经济增长。”本周需关注美国就业市场，尤其是美国2月新增非农就业人数和失业率数据，若新增非农就业人数不及预期，将进一步带动油价回落。
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