【铜价创5个月来新高，短期关注关税干扰】金十期货特约光大期货点评：周三，国际铜、沪铜价格齐涨，日内涨幅超2%，沪铜价格创出5个月来新高。1. 进入3月以来，受到关税政策扰动，COMEX铜在进口成本支撑下出现上涨。受套利驱使，海外铜正陆续运往美国，LME铜库存下滑，基差回升至升水，现货仍存紧缺预期，带动LME铜与国内铜同步跟涨。隔夜特朗普宣布将对加拿大钢铝关税翻倍至50%，进一步刺激了铜跨区域流动，今日铜价继续上探。2. 需求方面来看，终端线缆订单增量仍显不足，高铜价抑制了部分下游企业的下单意愿。但铜社会库存累库结束开始去库，累库幅度弱于去年同期，彰显了需求的韧性，成为铜价支撑的压舱石；而国内TC费用的不断下降以及较大幅度的进口亏损，也在一定程度上提振铜价。因此，当前市场情绪仍偏强，且易在关税炒作下发酵涨价预期，重点关注美国经济衰退定价及关税政策变动带来的影响。
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