【国际方面扰动持续 关注国内政策风向】金十期货3月11日讯,国际方面,美国总统特朗普表示,原计划于4月2日对来自加拿大和墨西哥的部分商品征收的关税“可能会增加”;摩根士丹利与高盛同步下调美国经济增长预期。国内方面,两会今日闭幕,关注盘后政策公布情况。中辉期货分析师吴明近认为,综合来看,国内外宏观情绪扰动增强,大宗商品整体承压运行,短线操作以风险管理为主。1、液化气:原料气需求不断增长及加拿大供应或出现中断,而美国本土干气产量未见增长,推动美国天然气本轮强势上涨涨势。国内现货端华南广石化出厂5148,山东最低4800,华东最低4850。尽管原油走弱拖累lpg,但现货支撑尚存,05合约有效上破日线图20日线或将打开小周期反弹空间。2、生猪:对原产于加拿大的猪肉加征25%关税,该消息对生猪影响有限。当前需求处于淡季,养殖端仍有利润,中期供强需弱格局不该,不过随着前期猪价的回调,部分贸易商启动冻品入库,缓冲短期猪价下行压力。05合约低位震荡后逐步测试4个月以来高位,短线在轻仓顺势跟进看反弹或更具性价比。
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