US Equity Investors to Focus on Inflation Data This Week as Fed Monitors Trump's Tariff Barriers

MT Newswires Live
10 Mar

US equity investors will focus on consumer and producer prices this week as President Donald Trump's tariffs evolve and investors gauge the impact of import duties on inflation expectations and monetary policy.

* Key data this week will be the consumer and wholesale price indexes, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading, and one-year and five-year inflation expectations. JOLTS job openings and weekly jobless claims are also due this week.

* "The immediate [CPI/PPI] readings are not the main focus for FOMC officials," a Scotiabank note said late Friday. "They are more focused upon forward looking risks to inflation in the context of an economy that remains in excess aggregate demand and as they evaluate high volatility around the Trump administration's policies on regulatory change, immigration changes, tariffs, and fiscal policy."

* The Fed doesn't need to hurry and can wait for greater clarity, Chair Jerome Powell said Friday following the nonfarm payrolls data.

* "If the economy remains strong but inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer," Powell said. "If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly."

* Tariffs unsettled markets last week after Trump imposed a 25% levy on Mexico and Canada. His administration later delayed some of the tariffs by a month, clouding the outlook for supply costs. Additional import duties on China remained unchanged.

* Morgan Stanley, last week, revised US economic growth lower for 2025 and 2026, saying facts have changed. "We now see higher inflation in 2025 with a more pronounced and sooner reacceleration in goods prices. The mix of firm inflation and low unemployment could put the Fed in a bind."

* Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Dollar General (DG) are among the US companies reporting results this week.

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