Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (NYSE:MEC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to US$14.36 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues were US$582m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.24, an impressive 294% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mayville Engineering Company after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Mayville Engineering Company

Taking into account the latest results, Mayville Engineering Company's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$571.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 63% to US$0.47 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$583.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.80 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 9.5% to US$19.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mayville Engineering Company, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Mayville Engineering Company is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Mayville Engineering Company is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mayville Engineering Company. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mayville Engineering Company going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Mayville Engineering Company is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.