Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin’s BTC/USD first weekly close below bull market support band could signal the cycle top.

What Happened: As Bitcoin slipped below $79,000, Cowen raised concerns in a podcast on Monday, noting that BTC has closed below the bull market support band on a weekly timeframe for the first time outside Q3 during this cycle.

"This is deviating from past cycles," he stated, highlighting how Bitcoin’s one-year ROI is declining—unlike in 2017, when it continued rising through March.

Cowen believes Bitcoin's weakness stems from broader market conditions, explaining: “The most likely explanation for why Bitcoin is down is because the stock market is down.”

While the S&P 500 has erased all post-election gains, Bitcoin has yet to follow fully, though he warns it could retrace to $68,000–$69,000 in response

Cycle Peak Or Recovery?

Cowen suggests Bitcoin could test $69,000—its previous all-time high—without breaking historical trends. "Bitcoin could drop to $69,000 and still be tracking the 2016–2017 cycle," he explained.

However, he set a critical threshold: "If Bitcoin falls below $70,000, there’s a strong chance the cycle has already peaked. A brief wick to $69,000 might allow for recovery, but a deeper drop to $62,000–$63,000 would likely mean the bull cycle is over."

Also Read: Bitcoin’s Drops Below $80,000: Correction Or Buying Opportunity?

What's Next: Cowen predicts Bitcoin will remain in a “window of weakness” until March options expiry, possibly into early April.

"How low Bitcoin goes in the next two weeks will determine whether this cycle is right-translated (bullish) or left-translated (bearish)," he noted. If BTC avoids deeper losses, April could bring renewed upside momentum.

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