Xponential Fitness, Inc. XPOF is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 13.

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In the last reported quarter, XPOF registered a negative earnings surprise of 122.2%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of XPOF

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 39 cents, indicating an improvement of 387.5% from 8 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $80.6 million. The projection suggests a 10.6% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Xponential Fitness, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Xponential Fitness, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Xponential Fitness, Inc. Quote

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape XPOF’s Quarterly Results

Xponential Fitness’ fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its strong franchise model, expansion initiatives and focus on premium boutique fitness experiences. This and an emphasis on its digital and membership-driven strategies are likely to have aided its performance in the fourth quarter.

Enhancements to its marketing efforts and continued expansion of brands like Club Pilates and Pure Barre are expected to have contributed to membership retention in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the company’s focus on international expansion, including new studio openings in key markets, may have provided incremental growth opportunities.

In 2024, the company’s North America system-wide sales are projected to range between $1.705 billion and $1.715 billion, representing a 22% increase year over year. XPOF predicts total revenues in 2024 to be between $310 million and $320 million.

The company’s emphasis on high-margin franchise fees and recurring royalty revenues is expected to have supported profitability in the fourth quarter. Operational improvements and cost management initiatives are expected to have driven efficiencies in the to-be-reported quarter. The company has focused on streamlining corporate overhead and improving the unit-level economics of its franchisees. These actions are likely to have contributed to margin expansion, aiding the bottom line. XPOF expects its 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be between $120 million and $124 million. It anticipates an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 39% at the midpoint.

XPOF continues to navigate a dynamic fitness industry landscape. Persistent macroeconomic pressures, including inflationary impacts on discretionary spending, may have weighed on the company’s fourth-quarter membership growth. Additionally, rising competition in the boutique fitness space and potential franchisee funding constraints could have weighed on its fourth-quarter performance.

What Our Model Says About XPOF Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Xponential Fitness this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP for XPOF: Xponential Fitness has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Xponential Fitness’ Zacks Rank: Currently, the company has a Zacks Rank #3.

Recent Consumer Discretionary Releases

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT reported exceptional fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein adjusted earnings and total revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew year over year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company's performance was backed by strong demand for leisure travel, with continued growth in business transient and group travel. These robust trends supported growth in occupancy and average daily rate, resulting in increased revenue per available room. Furthermore, favorable net unit growth compared with last year and the continuous efforts in expanding the portfolio globally added to the uptrend. HLT expects the robust travel trends to continue into 2025, positioning it to deliver strong results in the near term.

Mattel, Inc. MAT reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.

In 2024, Mattel repurchased $400 million worth of shares and improved its leverage ratio. The company remains ahead of schedule in achieving its $200 million cost-savings target by 2026. For 2025, Mattel projects continued revenue and earnings growth, increased investments in digital gaming and a $600 million share repurchase program, underscoring its commitment to long-term shareholder value creation. MAT anticipates its adjusted EPS in 2025 to be between $1.66 and $1.72 compared with $1.62 reported in 2024.

Marriott International, Inc. MAR reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top line increased year over year while the bottom line declined from the prior-year quarter.

Marriott posted strong results in 2024, driven by steady global travel demand and strategic portfolio expansion. The company’s development momentum remained strong, with the signing of a record number of new deals and its development pipeline reaching 577,000 rooms. Given its vast global footprint, a loyalty program comprising nearly 228 million Marriott Bonvoy members and an asset-light model, MAR remains well-positioned to capitalize on travel demand and drive growth in the upcoming periods.

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