金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，认为随着3月底煤价领先需求触底，非电煤需求（如化工领域）逐步恢复，叠加6月迎峰度夏旺季驱动，价格有望回升至770元/吨以上。在政策端后续有望加码背景下焦煤板块是核心。 该行指，预计3月底见需求底部，4月正式进入上升通道。当前整体产业链库存已经较低，煤矿同时步入检修，预计价格平台整理。我们判断随着4月非电煤的需求抬升，煤价步入上升通道，判断6月夏季旺季价格可以攀升至770元/吨以上。1）供给端：国内增量有限（据政府工作报告目标，我们预计2025年晋陕蒙新增产能仅0.6%），叠加印尼出口新规（HBA抬升成本，,新地板价出台）抑制进口，全年进口量或同比下降。2）需求端：3月底采暖季结束需求触底后，非电煤（化工、基建）有望随复工及政策加码（两会后财政发力）逐步复苏，6月迎峰度夏回归正常旺季需求，价格有望回升至770元/吨以上。同时，2025年水电冲击减弱，两会财政加码，政策也有望助力后续需求超预期。
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