金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，根据国家卫健委主任在会议中表述，2025年将发放育儿补贴，正在会同有关部门起草相关操作方案。根据国家统计局公布数据，2024年我国出生人口阶段性回升至954万人，同比增长约6%，该行分析与各地生育支持政策逐渐推出及落实及龙年生肖因素有关，人口结构压力仍存，生育支持政策加码存在必要性。该行认为育儿成本高是生育率下降的核心原因之一，育儿补贴有助于降低生育养育成本。该行预计，相较此前地方性补贴，若国家层面育儿补贴落地，受益区域、人群范围有望扩大，补贴金额虽未明确但根据之前地方试点情况来看，生育补贴作用正向，尤其对于偏低线城市而言，补贴带动效果更为明显。该行认为，育儿补贴是破解低生育率问题的关键措施之一，短期有助于提振生育意愿、降低人口压力，长期来看仍需托育、教育、职业保障等配套举措的配合，建设生育友好型社会。育儿补贴落地有望提振生育意愿，投资端受益生育率提升的相关板块有望迎主题表现机会。综合企业基本面和主题弹性，建议重点关注：1）母婴连锁；2）乳制品；3）母婴用品；4）母婴代运营；5）辅助生殖；6）疫苗；7）儿童药；8）眼科。
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