Peru interest rate decision on Wednesday
JPMorgan downgrades Mexican stocks, upgrades Brazil
Latam stocks down 1.4%, FX subdued
By Shashwat Chauhan
March 10 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks tracked a Wall Street selloff on Monday on growing concerns that a global trade war could trigger a U.S. economic slowdown, with the focus on tariff developments.
U.S. President Donald Trump declined to predict over the weekend whether the country could face a recession after he slapped additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
"The policy mix of the Trump administration is fuelling downside risks to growth and re-igniting fears of recession," said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at GlobalData TS Lombard, in a note.
"We do not currently anticipate recession in the U.S., but we expect further dollar depreciation as markets adjust to the new global distribution of growth."
Trump's tariffs have stoked market volatility after the president late last week suspended the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods which had come into effect on March 4.
MSCI's stocks gauge for Latin America .MILA00000PUS fell 1.4%, in-line with a drop on Wall Street. Regional heavyweight Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP was almost 1% lower, reversing most of the previous session's rise.
JPMorgan downgraded Mexican stocks due to slower economic growth and U.S. tariffs, while taking a bullish stance on Brazilian equities, citing the potential end of an interest rate hiking cycle and a boost from China's stimulus measures.
The Mexican peso MXN= held steady, last bid at 20.2043 against the dollar, while Brazil's real BRL= also held firm at 5.7825 per greenback.
"A weaker dollar will help support EM risk appetite and EM currencies, many of which are materially undervalued vs recent history," added GlobalData TS Lombard's Harrison.
U.S. inflation readings will be closely watched later this week, as worries of an economic slowdown and Trump's tariffs possibly stoking price pressures have led markets to reprice expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Traders currently see around three 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, up from almost two at the start of 2025, according to LSEG data.
Disappointing data out of China also weighed. The country's consumer price index fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months in February, while producer price deflation persisted.
Latin American countries are heavy producers of commodities like oil and copper, of which China is one of the world's biggest consumers.
Peru's central bank is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, while this week also brings a batch of inflation readings from Brazil.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Equities | Latest | Daily % change |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1113.44 | -1.34 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2005.56 | -1.44 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 123839.64 | -0.96 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 52442.11 | -0.75 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 7383.4 | 0.09 |
Argentina Merval .MERV | 2195282.06 | -2.96 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1594.95 | -0.97 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRL= | 5.7825 | 0.08 |
Mexico peso MXN= | 20.2043 | 0.16 |
Chile peso CLP= | 928.28 | 0.11 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4156.21 | -0.48 |
Peru sol PEN= | 3.6526 | 0.01 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 1065.25 | 0.02 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1195 | 1.67 |
(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
((Shashwat.Chauhan@thomsonreuters.com;))
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