3 月 10 日，Real Vision 加密分析师 Jamie Coutts 称，美元走弱可能会推动比特币走强，但有两个关键指标在短期内可能引发担忧。“尽管随着美元暴跌，我的框架正变得看涨，但两项指标仍然引发警报：美国国债波动率（MOVE 指数）和公司债息差。”Coutts 将比特币描述为与各国央行之间的一场“博弈”，尽管存在这些令人担忧的指标，但整体上仍呈现“谨慎看涨”的前景。
MOVE 指数是衡量美国国债市场预期波动性的指标。Coutts 观察到，MOVE 指数目前虽保持稳定，但呈上升趋势。国债波动率上升可能导致流动性进一步收紧，与此同时，公司债息差已连续三周扩大。重大公司债息差的反转通常与比特币价格见顶相吻合。
Coutts 总结称，整体而言，这些指标对比特币构成负面信号。“不过，美元的贬值——这是过去 12 年来最大幅度的月度贬值之一——仍然是我框架中的主要驱动力。”
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