智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，数据公布后美国10年国债收益率小幅下降4个基点，市场对2025年减息幅度预期小幅下调但对2026年减息幅度预期加大。鲍威尔在最近讲话中表示，不确定性大幅上升，但经济仍然处于良好位置，美联储不必急于行动，需要观察白宫关税等政策的影响。
该行预计美联储短期内很可能保持中性观望的政策态度，因为鸽派态度可能增加特朗普加征关税可能性带来滞涨风险，而鹰派态度则会进一步加剧市场波动。美联储3月、5月和6月可能延续暂停减息。随著特朗普政策导致经济明显放缓，美联储可能在9月或12月减息1次。
报告指，美国2月新增非农就业15.1万人，略低于市场预期，整体较上月小幅回升。私人部门新增就业大幅反弹，但联邦政府就业减少，DOGE影响初显。时薪按月增速再次下降，薪资增速保持温和放缓，有利于核心服务通胀下降。失业率上升0.1个百分点至4.1%，广义失业率U6大幅上升，家庭调查口径下就业人口大幅减少。
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