国金证券:美国无他,唯“氛围衰退”尔

国金证券
11 Mar

叙事总是存在惯性。特朗普上任前,华尔街还在憧憬“特朗普2.0”将带来经济的空前繁荣,美元和美股将“一往无前”。而特朗普上任至今的一个多月时间,相对偏弱的数据表现已经开始反映出特朗普对美国经济的负面影响,改革的阵痛和混乱先于繁荣到来,形成了一个人为的“小型衰退预期”叙事,从此前的“美国例外论”走向了“氛围衰退”。从宏观视角看,在当前偏滞胀的环境中,增长比通胀更加重要。美国经济在周期性增长放缓的情况下...

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