US natural gas prices hit more than 2-year high on record LNG exports, supply concerns

Reuters
10 Mar
US natural gas prices hit more than 2-year high on record LNG exports, supply concerns

By Anmol Choubey

March 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas prices hit their highest level in more than two years on Monday, supported by record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export facilities and supply concerns ahead of the summer season.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 7.1 cents, or 1.6%, at $4.47 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 10:03 a.m. EDT (1403 GMT), after hitting their highest level since December of 2022 earlier in the session.

"The market's now reacting to tightness in supply as well as the additional potential risk of tariffs on the products ... threats from Canada really caused kind of a big surge in prices and it's keeping the market on edge right now," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

"There are a lot of weather forecasts that are looking at the upcoming summer and expect it to be warmer than usual, which is going to keep inventories very tight."

Gas prices rose more than 14% last week on record flows to LNG plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. Trump later said the two trading partners would not have to pay tariffs until early April on any goods that fell under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada.

In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.7 bcfd over the past few days since Trump's tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data.

That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration $(EIA)$ last week said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 110.5 bcfd this week to 106.7 bcfd next week.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose rebounding from lows late last week, on forecasts of lower temperatures and as Russian forces intensified attacks on Ukraine. NG/EU

Week ended Feb 28 Actual

Week ended Feb 21 Actual

Year ago Feb 28

Five-year average

Feb 28

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-80

-261

-56

-94

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,760

1,840

2,345

1,984

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-11.3%

-11.5%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.40

4.20

1.75

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.87

13.05

8.54

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.76

13.69

8.95

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

221

250

242

282

270

U.S. GFS CDDs

12

9

10

11

17

U.S. GFS TDDs

233

259

252

293

287

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.1

105.7

105.2

-

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

9.2

9.1

8.8

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

-

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

115.3

114.8

114.1

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.8

3.5

3.5

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.3

6.1

6.2

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.6

15.9

15.7

-

11.8

U.S. Commercial

13.7

11.2

10.6

-

11.8

U.S. Residential

21.6

17.2

16.1

-

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

26.4

25.3

23.6

-

27.5

U.S. Industrial

24.6

23.7

23.6

-

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

-

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.5

2.3

2.2

-

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

-

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

94.1

85.0

81.2

-

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

119.8

110.5

106.7

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

87

85

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

85

84

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

86

85

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended March 14

Week ended March 7

2024

2023

2022

Wind

15

14

11

10

11

Solar

6

6

5

4

3

Hydro

7

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

33

35

42

41

38

Coal

18

17

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

20

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

4.23

4.37

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.85

3.95

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.82

4.14

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.67

3.80

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.84

4.06

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

4.62

4.70

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.85

4.24

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.3

2.00

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

-

1.96

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

-

50.95

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

48.95

54.34

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

40.74

37.82

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

31.80

27.63

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

27.96

16.99

text_section_type="notes">For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)

((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com;))

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