金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，在特朗普不确定性影响下，叠加过去一段时间美国10年期国债收益率上涨对实体经济的限制，使得美国经济增长再度降温。尽管近期部分机构已开始上调美国经济衰退的概率，但结合主要美国经济指标来看，衰退风险仍相对较低，一些经济指标和美股波动可能会利于美联储再度打开降息空间。同时，美国当前基本面走势亦符合该行判断，即“经济基本面强→降息预期回落→美债收益率上升压制美国经济基本面→降息预期回升→美债收益率回落”的循环。当前距离5、6月美联储FOMC会议仍有2-3个月的经济数据，降息预期仍有可能再度回落。
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